Hispanic digital media spend will surpass print and radio, as in the general market. Digital media spend in the Hispanic market will continue to remain far behind TV, radio and print (approximately 5% in 2011). With all the talk about increased spending on Hispanic digital by agencies and marketers alike, we will look back on 2012 and see digital spend stayed well below double digit territory and is nowhere near surpassing radio or print (as we saw in the general market in 2011).

Hispanic ad spend will stay flat in 2012. If there is one prediction you can take to the bank, it’s this one – Hispanic media ad spend will grow in 2012 (compared to 2011). While there is still concern over a double-dip recession in 2012 (particularly as things unravel in Europe), the 2012 elections and the juggernaut that is Univision will assure growth in the market. Portada recently released a report projecting 4-5% media growth in the Hispanic market based on a survey of Hispanic marketing professionals. I think this is conservative.

Marketers will increase their budget allocations to the Hispanic market. Although the previous prediction would logically lead most to believe that marketers will increase their Hispanic budget allocations (the percentage of their overall marketing budgets directed at the U.S. Hispanic market), the sad reality is that things will remain status quo when it comes to the approach most marketers take to allocating budgets to the Hispanic market. Most of the growth in Hispanic ad spend in 2012 will be driven by new entrants into the space – led by political advertising (not just candidates – but the also super PACs – all of whom are finally paying attention to Hispanic voters). Existing Hispanic advertisers will continue to maintain their Hispanic spend in the same range as in 2010.

Mainstream digital publishers will stop launching English-language “Latino” Websites. The last 2 years have seen major media companies jump into the Hispanic digital space – targeting the oft discussed bicultural and English dominant Latino, including FoxNewsLatino.com. NBCLatino.com, and The Huffington Post Latino Voices. Some might assume the space is now crowded, or that competing with media powerhouses like News Corp, AOL and NBC Universal is futile. Well, I see more of these “Latino” extensions coming in 2012. Why? The barrier to entry is so low. With digital, unlike the offline world of broadcast or print, there is very little capital costs (if any) associated with launching a new publication. Sure, a good Website infrastructure is not cheap, and producing quality content is not easy (or inexpensive), but compared to the printing and infrastructure costs of launching a new Spanish-language daily or the licensing fees associated with launching a new Spanish-language radio station, the costs are marginal and worth the risk. One interesting ramification of this new media growth will be that there will be many more options to reach English-speaking Latinos than ever before.

Mobile will finally become a key part of the Hispanic marketing mix for most advertisers. “2012 will be the year of Hispanic mobile marketing.” I’m sure you’ve heard or read this somewhere. With all the data on Hispanics’ heavy use of mobile and major growth in general market mobile marketing, it stands to reason that Hispanic mobile will come of age in 2012. Unfortunately, this is a major case of all bark and no bite. I see a couple of problems with these naïve predictions. # 1: Where will the money come from? With most mobile media programs funded out of digital media buckets, and Hispanic digital media spending in the 5-6% range, mobile marketing programs will be hard pressed to find funding in an already dry well. #2 With so much of the growth in mobile activity being driven by mobile Web browsing and tablet use, I do not anticipate significant investment on the part of marketers into Hispanic mobile- and tablet-optimized sites (when most hardly keep up their browser-based Hispanic Web and microsites) #3 Hispanic mobile and social media are inextricably intertwined, and Hispanic social media is still in its infancy (see below).

Clients will continue moving their Hispanic advertising to general market shops. As the economy slowly starts improving in 2012 (I’m an optimist), I expect there will be less pressure on marketers to consolidate their general market and Hispanic advertising programs in one ad shop. Equally important, many veteran Hispanic marketers who consolidated will likely miss the attention to detail and specialized resources they got from Hispanic ad agencies compared to the Hispanic divisions of general market shops. Finally, I think general market shops are less excited about investing in Hispanic capabilities and divisions after experiencing how little budget is actually allocated to these programs. 5% of a client’s marketing budget is not too exciting when you already have 95% of it.

Hispanic social media will become a major force in the industry. Again – lots of buzz, but very little substance to back it up. While 2010 and 2011 have seen a lot attention placed on engaging Hispanics in social media, with the establishment of two rival Hispanic social media organizations and countless blog networks touting thousands of influential Hispanic bloggers, the space is still in its infancy and will take a while to catch up to the general market in scale and sophistication. While I applaud the efforts of organizations like LATISM, Hispanicize, and Latina Bloggers Connect among others, large reach and national marketer scale is still missing from the space. Specifically, as more and more Latinos start blogging and building large networks on Facebook, Twitter, and Linkedin, there is a key missing ingredient –an audience of millions of Latinos consuming their content. Until that happens, Hispanic social media will be a niche within a niche.

We won’t see any new Hispanic advertising agencies open their doors in 2012. No matter how challenging or competitive the Hispanic ad industry gets, it always amazes me that new Hispanic ad agencies, PR shops, and other marketing agencies are launched every year. I don’t have an official count, but I know of at least a dozen or so shops launched between 2009 and 2011 (in arguably the most challenging 3 years the industry has faced). It’s quite a testament to the resilience and constant innovation within the industry that optimistic entrepreneurs see opportunities to make a better mousetrap in our business.

I think 2012 will be a good year for our industry – filled it’s fair share of challenges, but more importantly, opportunities to grow and prosper, as Hispanics become a bigger and more integral element of the American corporate and cultural life.

(an edited version of this article originally ran on MediaPost’s Engage Hispanic blog on January 5, 2012)

• Hispanics are early adopters of new technology, especially within the social media realm (we’re basically dealing with an “early adopter” consumer segment)
• Traditional Hispanic marketing is fairly predictable with clear steps to execution and predictable outcomes (you create a print ad and if you get it into the publisher before a certain date it will run it in a magazine with a certain circulation and will be viewed by x number of consumers)

So essentially, Hispanic social media marketing, even more than traditional social media marketing, is highly unpredictable. It is realm chock full of unknowns. An experienced social media marketer will tell you that they never know what will work before they’re actually in market, so it’s a game of trial and error. You have to be willing to fail before you succeed.

Unfortunately, the way most marketing programs (including social media programs) are planned, developed, launched, measured and optimized is based on a linear model that depends on the accuracy of numerous assumptions and emphasizes the planning artifacts (usually in the form of documents like “strategic plans”, creative briefs, and media plans). It is “waterfall” sequential process (as its described in the software development world):

By contrast, over the last few years, a new, more flexible approach to marketing, based on the tenets of Agile methodology (again, an approach pioneered in software development), has been evangelized by many organizations that stresses speed to market, rapid iteration, and embraces the notion that marketers don’t know what works before they’re actually in market. Because of the unpredictable nature of the Hispanic consumer and their use of digital media, and the “wild west” nature of social media marketing, an agile approach is critical to success.

So what does this approach look like? It helps to contrast it to the way most of us have gone about developing marketing programs (and ironically, the waterfall method I proposed in last year’s Hispanic Social Media Guide)

So how do you get started with this new agile approach to Hispanic social media? Follow these simple steps:

#1 Assemble a small team and assign roles – Focus on “doers.” If you planning on producing a lot of Spanish content, get a Spanish copywriter on board. If you will be building an app, get a developer on the team. Give everyone clear roles and make sure you have all the resources to execute on your program.

#2 Decide on the duration of the first project (or “sprint”) – Emphasize short cycles, ideally 2-4 weeks. Anything longer than that means you’re overplanning or don’t have the resources you need to build what you want.

#3 Set goals for the first project / sprint – Flesh out your goals from a user perspective in the form of “stories.” E.g. “I want Hispanic moms to visit the Facebook page, ‘fan’ us, and download a printable recipe.”

#4 Set regular project/sprint meetings – Set short (10-30 min) meeting daily or a couple times a week to discuss the stories, review tasks and estimate time requirements.

#5 Project / sprint retrospective – After you’re in market, evaluate and discuss with the team what went well and what went didn’t.

#6 Start project/sprint planning again (for the next project/sprint) – Go back to step #3 and start again.

This approach to Hispanic social media isn’t about discarding all planning, but instead about condensing into short cycles, where documentation and assumptions are replaced with living programs and actual results (and data).

While I wouldn’t suggest this agile approach for all Hispanic marketing programs, particularly those with hard deadlines and highly defined deliverables (like event marketing, direct mail, or print/OOH advertising), it’s perfectly suited to social media marketing. Social media provides near instant feedback – you’ll know within a few days or weeks whether a program is working. Social media is also relatively inexpensive (particularly of the hard costs of media necessary with most traditional advertising), allowing for easy testing and learning.

One final note: agile Hispanic social media marketing is perfect for companies that are just getting started in the Hispanic market. Success in the U.S. Hispanic mark often requires investments and changes in other aspects of a company’s operation – such as customer service, human resources, and product / service development. Trying to predict them all upfront would be difficult if not impossible

Hispanic social media continues to be one of the hottest topics in the business of Hispanic marketing. More and more data comes out every week about Hispanics and how they use social media. A steady flow of conferences, panel discussions, and interest on the part of marketers and their agencies has kept the subject top of mind for the last 18 months. I wonder if all this excitement is missing the mark because we’re still looking at the opportunity from the lens of Hispanic marketing circa 1990?

It’s helpful to take a step back and think about why the Hispanic marketing industry exists. Hispanic marketing exists primarily for 3 reasons: Language, Population size, and Culture.

The Spanish language was the original nexus for this industry, and even today, most Hispanic advertising is in Spanish and runs in Spanish language media. The size of the Hispanic population has elevated it above other ethnic groups in a country of immigrants – its population growth continues unabated into 2011. Cultural (behavior and beliefs) differences between Hispanics and mainstream Americans have created challenges for all series of organizations looking to tap into the opportunity of this perpetually emerging market.

However, when we look at social media, do these distinctions between Hispanics and the rest of the U.S. apply? Starting with population size, the market opportunity in social media does appear to be as compelling as in the analog world. Large percentages of Hispanics are online and using social media – so there is scale to justify the attention. And there is a lot of data pointing to the fact that Hispanics tend to have more friends, followers, connections, etc. – a direct translation of their larger offline social networks. But size alone does not make a market – a large group of people with Latin surnames using Facebook, Twitter or YouTube is not in itself a marketing opportunity

So we turn to language. Most online Hispanics are comfortable reading and writing in English. We know half of all U.S. Hispanics were born in the U.S., and with a large youth population, we can infer that more and more Hispanics will be able to navigate their digital lives in English. Moreover, since social media is in essence an amalgamation of content created by consumers, there are no Spanish-language versions of social networks, micromedia, or video sharing sites. There is no channel 34 of social media.

Lastly, are there cultural – behavioral and belief – differences between Hispanics and the mainstream market that result in different social behavior? Can we say that large swaths of 20-30 million Hispanic who are online exhibit some distinct social media behavior that would create an opportunity to connect with them? Do they update their status differently on Facebook or create different tweets? Do they join different groups on LinkedIn or not enjoy watching kitten videos on YouTube as much as everybody else? Do Hispanics view social media differently- Do they read or write blogs for different reasons?

I wonder if these mostly demographic distinctions, which were the basis for the modern Hispanic marketing industry that started in the 1960s, are the right way to approach Hispanic social media? In an environment that empowers consumers to create content and connect with others who share common interests, passions, and experiences – maybe we need to reframe the discussion?

Are we missing the boat by focusing on Hispanic demographic and behavioral distinctions? Is Hispanic social media really all about psychographics – and tapping into digital psychographic communities?

Let’s look at what is distinct about Hispanics in social media? An easy one is that Hispanics are organically part of Hispanic communities online. Stated another way, if you’re Hispanic and using social media, you’re more likely to have friends, connections, followers, etc. that are Hispanic. So what? Well, there is a network and amplifier effect – reaching a Hispanic in this environment has the potential to virally reach other Hispanics who are connected to each other.

Digging deeper, there is something even more distinct and powerful about Hispanic social media use – the ability to connect with others who share similar life experiences and interests. What is the quintessential shared experience among all Hispanics? I would argue that it’s the fact that we live in two worlds – our ethnic world defined by either our or our parents/grandparents’ home country and our mainstream, American world. This cuts across the Hispanic acculturation spectrum. If you believe that we are the sum of our life experiences, then there is a potentially powerful connection among tens of millions of Hispanics living in the U.S. that social media has the potential to tap into.

Lastly, social media has provided Hispanics with the ability to find and create content that matters to them – highly niche content beyond the cookie-cutter “Hispanic” content created by Hispanic TV, radio, magazines, and newspapers that was designed to be all things for all Hispanics. Remember, Hispanics are a highly diverse group in the U.S., from 22 different nationalities, who now live across this varied country, who speak differently, eat different foods, and have very different passions. The long-tail world of social media content has created a conduit for these hundreds of Hispanic sub-groups to connect with each other digitally.

So how can marketers and brands successfully utilize social media to reach Hispanics? I will delve into that subject through new research on our Hispanic Personas project. I am going to be unveiling this groundbreaking Hispanic Persona project that will delve into the psychographics of social Hispanics at the Hispanicize 2011 Conference in Los Angeles on April 7.

My next MediaPost article will introduce some toplines of that research, but the full research will only be available at Hispanicize 2011.

If you’re like me, you’ve probably seen innumerable reports and studies stating that Hispanics are more social.

Most of the data backing up this catchy headline focuses on social media usage. Hispanics are active users of social media platforms, particularly social networks like Facebook, micromedia such as Twitter, and the reading and writing of blogs. Research firms like Forrester have gone further and looked at what type of social media users Hispanics are by understanding where they fit into their well-respected social technographic ladder (“Inactives” vs “Creators”, etc.). Again, the data paints a positive picture that Hispanics over-index the general market in terms of their engagement level. In plain English – there are a lot of Hispanic social media users and they are more active.

All of this quantitative data is sound and the conclusion is pretty straightforward – Hispanics use social media, as much or more than their general market counterparts. That’s great and all, but it doesn’t really help a marketer figure out how to use social media to market to Hispanics.

Why not? Isn’t the data enough to support most brands and companies investing in Hispanic social media?

Unfortunately, the tools aren’t there. Hispanic marketers only have a two-dimensional prism to understand a three-dimensional world. Put another way, all the great data I referenced earlier just confirms that Hispanics are consuming/producing social media, but that isn’t enough information to understand how to engage them in this space Why? Because social media activity cannot be simply filtered as Hispanic unless Hispanics behave differently than non-Hispanics in this environment.

The problem lies in the simple premise at the heart of the multi-billion dollar Hispanic marketing industry – that most Hispanics are culturally and linguistically different from the “general market” and consume different media (i.e. Hispanic media, 90 percent of which is in Spanish). This premise is the reason why two symbiotic sectors exist:
• Hispanic advertising and PR agencies that create culturally and linguistically relevant communications for Hispanic consumers
• Hispanic media that provides Hispanic consumers with linguistically and/or culturally unique content they demand (where Hispanic ad agencies can buy media on and PR firms can “earn” coverage in)

When we talk about reaching Hispanics in social media the aforementioned premise no longer holds true. Specifically, the second part of the premise breaks down – Hispanics are not consuming different media – they are on the same Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and other large scale “connected” platforms as everyone else. That is what makes social media so powerful – you can connect 500 million people on the same network, even though they may be in 100 different countries speaking 150 different languages.

The concept of segmenting one ethnic group – either based on language, culture or media consumption – becomes fundamentally more complex when everyone is on the same site, network or platform. You can’t simply cling to differences in the language of media consumption. You can’t look to Facebook “en Español” (ask MySpace how that worked out for them) when the content is no longer asymmetrical – you don’t have a single, centralized content producer (think Univision or SBS) being consumed by large scale masses. The “content-creation-to-content-consumption” continuum is peer-to-peer (with companies/brands mixed in at the same level of peers), so it’s very difficult to depend on only contextual relevance.

What we’re missing is qualitative data about if, and how, Hispanics use social media differently. Do they consume, comment on, or produce social content that is different than the general market?

Language plays a part, but when you are connecting 100s of millions of people on the same platform, there is a lot of cross-language media consumption taking place. More simply, do Hispanics exhibit different behavior on social media? Part of this qualitative question is whether they demand – and therefore consume – different content. But that’s only part of the behavioral equation.

Do they produce different content (e.g. talk about different things)? Do they comment differently (i.e. are they more likely to comment positively than the general market)? Do they exhibit different attitudes towards brands and companies in social media? Do some of the generally excepted models of social media behavior apply “apples-to-apples” to U.S. Hispanic consumers (i.e. does the Hispanic social technographic ladder have different rungs)?

I have anecdotal evidence from client campaigns that they do behave differently, but our industry needs more robust qualitative research and behavioral models to provide the 78 percent of hesitant marketers (according to an Orci report) with the intelligence they need to smartly “go to market” with Hispanics in social media.

It is all over the news that there was a shooting incident today at Ft. Hood outside of Killeen, TX.

The interesting social media story is that within hours, if not minutes, of the shootings the Austin American-Statesman set up a Twitter account called @FtHoodShootings to cover the news of the event.

In less than two hours they have almost 2000 followers.

Much like URLs, the Twitter land grab has started and will only accelerate. As events happen or stars become famous, people will move quickly to snatch up Twitter accounts with relevant names. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

While this isn’t a new trend, it was, for the most part, a trend that did not seep over into the multicultural marketing industry.

However, that is starting to change. I feel like every conference or event I go to these days is filled with 20-50 [fill-in the market here] social media experts.

So how do separate the wannabes from the real experts?

A couple of questions to ask and look out for in evaluating so called “Social Media Experts:”

1. Do they have actual CLIENT social media program experience vs. simply PERSONAL experience derived from their own Twittering, Facebook wall posts and blog posts?

2. Are they selling social media programs as finite campaigns (e.g. a Facebook fan page to go with a 4 month paid media campaign?). If yes, this is a red flag.

3. Do they have experience in launching social media campaigns for clients that involve more than a Twitter feed, Facebook Group/Fan page, YouTube channel, and/or Ning social network?

4. How well versed are they in implementing tracking, dashboards and analytics tying social media efforts back to concrete business goal, results and providing clear ROI?

5. Do they have experience running social media programs in complicated client environments with significant exposure to liability (e.g. Fortune 1000 companies, CPGs, regulated industries, government agencies, etc.)?

Start with question #1, and if they pass the mustard on all five questions, you know you’re talking to someone with valuable experience and insights

In terms of multicultural social media experts, use the same criteria listed above but in the context of real-life client experience with social media programs targeted to specific multicultural audiences. Multicultural social media programs are a recent phenomena, so be suspicious of anyone who claims 4 years of experience reach Hispanics or African Americans with social media!

I don’t have any first-hand experience with any of the situations she describes, but I’ve always noticed nationality-trends at certain agencies (e.g. agencies run by Mexicans tend to have a lot of Mexicans working there, agencies run by Argentinians tend to hire a lot of Argentinians, etc, etc.).

Do I think that there are discriminatory behavior driving these anecdotal trends? I don’t think so. I think it’s just human nature – if you were born and raised in Argentina, you have a natural affinity and connection with people from Argentina. Will that influence your hiring decisions? Of course – we’re all social beings (especially those of us who are Hispanic!)

As someone who does make hiring decisions, I can tell you that I often evaluate potential candidates for more than their experience. One thing I often do is evaluate how involved they are in social media (i.e. do they have a Facebook, LinkedIn, or other social networking profile? Do they blog? Do they Twitter?) For our agency, I want to hire folks that actually walk the talk when it comes to social media (a big part of what we do for our clients).

However, I could see some disgruntled candidate or labor attorney claiming that I am discriminating against older candidates based on a social media litmus test.

The intricacies of these matters are not so black and white, and there is definitely a slippery slope…

Kudos to Rochelle for starting the conversation.

Jose

Last Thursday, Current Network became the first brand to solicit agencies via Twitter to receive RFPs for its account review.

Just another chapter in the burgeoning popularity of Twitter? Or just a side-show stunt for a brand to get some free PR.

While I tend to view this as more the latter, the entire turn of events got me thinking about Hispanic agency reviews. Can you imagine what would happen if Current Network was looking for a Hispanic agency? Probably wouldn’t have been as exciting nor have solicited the hundreds of creative responses that Current received (check out One to One’s video response). I mean, how many leaders at Hispanics agencies even Twitter? My theory is that not a lot. Would love to be proven wrong…

If any of you follow any Hispanic agency leaders via Twitter, please share their Twitter usernames. Mine is www.twitter.com/jrvilla