Hispanic digital media spend will surpass print and radio, as in the general market. Digital media spend in the Hispanic market will continue to remain far behind TV, radio and print (approximately 5% in 2011). With all the talk about increased spending on Hispanic digital by agencies and marketers alike, we will look back on 2012 and see digital spend stayed well below double digit territory and is nowhere near surpassing radio or print (as we saw in the general market in 2011).

Hispanic ad spend will stay flat in 2012. If there is one prediction you can take to the bank, it’s this one – Hispanic media ad spend will grow in 2012 (compared to 2011). While there is still concern over a double-dip recession in 2012 (particularly as things unravel in Europe), the 2012 elections and the juggernaut that is Univision will assure growth in the market. Portada recently released a report projecting 4-5% media growth in the Hispanic market based on a survey of Hispanic marketing professionals. I think this is conservative.

Marketers will increase their budget allocations to the Hispanic market. Although the previous prediction would logically lead most to believe that marketers will increase their Hispanic budget allocations (the percentage of their overall marketing budgets directed at the U.S. Hispanic market), the sad reality is that things will remain status quo when it comes to the approach most marketers take to allocating budgets to the Hispanic market. Most of the growth in Hispanic ad spend in 2012 will be driven by new entrants into the space – led by political advertising (not just candidates – but the also super PACs – all of whom are finally paying attention to Hispanic voters). Existing Hispanic advertisers will continue to maintain their Hispanic spend in the same range as in 2010.

Mainstream digital publishers will stop launching English-language “Latino” Websites. The last 2 years have seen major media companies jump into the Hispanic digital space – targeting the oft discussed bicultural and English dominant Latino, including FoxNewsLatino.com. NBCLatino.com, and The Huffington Post Latino Voices. Some might assume the space is now crowded, or that competing with media powerhouses like News Corp, AOL and NBC Universal is futile. Well, I see more of these “Latino” extensions coming in 2012. Why? The barrier to entry is so low. With digital, unlike the offline world of broadcast or print, there is very little capital costs (if any) associated with launching a new publication. Sure, a good Website infrastructure is not cheap, and producing quality content is not easy (or inexpensive), but compared to the printing and infrastructure costs of launching a new Spanish-language daily or the licensing fees associated with launching a new Spanish-language radio station, the costs are marginal and worth the risk. One interesting ramification of this new media growth will be that there will be many more options to reach English-speaking Latinos than ever before.

Mobile will finally become a key part of the Hispanic marketing mix for most advertisers. “2012 will be the year of Hispanic mobile marketing.” I’m sure you’ve heard or read this somewhere. With all the data on Hispanics’ heavy use of mobile and major growth in general market mobile marketing, it stands to reason that Hispanic mobile will come of age in 2012. Unfortunately, this is a major case of all bark and no bite. I see a couple of problems with these naïve predictions. # 1: Where will the money come from? With most mobile media programs funded out of digital media buckets, and Hispanic digital media spending in the 5-6% range, mobile marketing programs will be hard pressed to find funding in an already dry well. #2 With so much of the growth in mobile activity being driven by mobile Web browsing and tablet use, I do not anticipate significant investment on the part of marketers into Hispanic mobile- and tablet-optimized sites (when most hardly keep up their browser-based Hispanic Web and microsites) #3 Hispanic mobile and social media are inextricably intertwined, and Hispanic social media is still in its infancy (see below).

Clients will continue moving their Hispanic advertising to general market shops. As the economy slowly starts improving in 2012 (I’m an optimist), I expect there will be less pressure on marketers to consolidate their general market and Hispanic advertising programs in one ad shop. Equally important, many veteran Hispanic marketers who consolidated will likely miss the attention to detail and specialized resources they got from Hispanic ad agencies compared to the Hispanic divisions of general market shops. Finally, I think general market shops are less excited about investing in Hispanic capabilities and divisions after experiencing how little budget is actually allocated to these programs. 5% of a client’s marketing budget is not too exciting when you already have 95% of it.

Hispanic social media will become a major force in the industry. Again – lots of buzz, but very little substance to back it up. While 2010 and 2011 have seen a lot attention placed on engaging Hispanics in social media, with the establishment of two rival Hispanic social media organizations and countless blog networks touting thousands of influential Hispanic bloggers, the space is still in its infancy and will take a while to catch up to the general market in scale and sophistication. While I applaud the efforts of organizations like LATISM, Hispanicize, and Latina Bloggers Connect among others, large reach and national marketer scale is still missing from the space. Specifically, as more and more Latinos start blogging and building large networks on Facebook, Twitter, and Linkedin, there is a key missing ingredient –an audience of millions of Latinos consuming their content. Until that happens, Hispanic social media will be a niche within a niche.

We won’t see any new Hispanic advertising agencies open their doors in 2012. No matter how challenging or competitive the Hispanic ad industry gets, it always amazes me that new Hispanic ad agencies, PR shops, and other marketing agencies are launched every year. I don’t have an official count, but I know of at least a dozen or so shops launched between 2009 and 2011 (in arguably the most challenging 3 years the industry has faced). It’s quite a testament to the resilience and constant innovation within the industry that optimistic entrepreneurs see opportunities to make a better mousetrap in our business.

I think 2012 will be a good year for our industry – filled it’s fair share of challenges, but more importantly, opportunities to grow and prosper, as Hispanics become a bigger and more integral element of the American corporate and cultural life.

(an edited version of this article originally ran on MediaPost’s Engage Hispanic blog on January 5, 2012)

You may be wondering what the right spend figure is? Well, according to the latest AHAA report the number is 14.2%.

In AHAA’s latest report – “Advertising 2011 Budget Alignment” – AHAA reframes the right spend argument from the perspective of return on investment – performing regression analysis on Nielsen Hispanic media investment data to quantify the correlation with a company’s overall revenue (over a 5 year time period). While I applaud AHAA and Santiago Solutions Group (the research company commissioned for the study) for their analysis and evolving the right spend argument, they still arrive at the same result – a single number (or a range of 6.4-14.2%, if you take their two top spending categories) that is implied by their analysis to be the right investment level for most U.S. companies.

Fundamentally, I think too much emphasis is being placed on this one single right spend number. My biggest concern with the emphasis on the right spend figure is how it’s calculated and what it measures. First of all, right spend, as calculated by AHAA, focuses on paid media spend on largely above-the-line (Cable & Spot TV, local radio, national magazine, and local magazine) Spanish language media tracked by Nielsen. The calculation not only ignores digital and direct response-oriented media (where historically a lot of Hispanic marketing investments are focused), but fails to take into consideration the other 2 pillars of the POEM (Paid, Owned, Earned Media) model – earned (PR, grassroots, events, social media, etc.) and owned media (in-store, POS activations, Websites, content marketing, etc.). It focuses only on paid media, a perspective that I feel is dated and unrepresentative of the entire spectrum of marketing activities taking place in the U.S. Hispanic market. Equally important, the logic for arriving at most of the right spend figures I’ve come across is overly very simplistic and flawed – the idea that advertising expenditure in the Hispanic market should be pegged to Hispanics percentage of the U.S. population (around 14%).

More importantly, I think the right spend figure is being improperly applied to individual firms and the decisions they should make. At its core, right spend is a macro measurement, that attempts to paint a picture of the entire U.S. Hispanic advertising market. Much like the field of economics, applying macro analytical tools to micro firm-level decisions is inappropriate. In a market-driven economy, individual firm decisions are influenced by macro-economic conditions, but not solely driven by them. Therefore, treating a right spend figure as a benchmark to be applied directly by individual firms is inappropriate.

So if economy-wide right spend figures are not to be used by marketers as a direct benchmark, what is a Hispanic marketer to do to determine the right advertising spend in this space? I would argue that individual firms should move beyond right spend and apply a toolbox approach to this very important decision. Below are four options much more appropriate for individual firms to consider:

Budget Allocation Modeling (Demand-based modeling) – As I discussed in a blog post last year, an effective analytical tool for determining Hispanic marketing budgets is to model the demand that will be created or how much additional Hispanic consumer sales will be generated by an increase in Hispanic marketing resources (i.e., demand elasticity).

Incorporating game theory – Game theory provides a valuable analytical framework for firms to evaluate competitive forces. Basically, it involves thinking through what your competitors will do based on various choices (in this case Hispanic advertising investment levels). Game theory can provide useful input, leveraging competitive investment data, to determine a firm’s potential Hispanic advertising spend.

An agile, option-based strategy – For new entrants into the Hispanic market, I often recommend an iterative, option-based strategy that will guide the right spend decision. This basically involves drawing up a series of incremental investment levels based on the successful achievement of milestones at each decision-point, or option point. The underlying concept is to start with controlled market tests, utilizing highly actionable data to guide success. In a recent article I fleshed out this agile approach in the context of Hispanic social media programs.

A total business approach – Building on the fact that the right spend calculations fail to consider the totality of investments in Hispanic marketing beyond paid media, determining the right Hispanic investment level for a company involves looking well beyond marketing. Particularly for new entrants into the Hispanic market, making sure you take a total business approach, considering product development, customer service, channel strategy, among others, is critical. Therefore, the right spend calculus needs to consider much more than marketing expenditures.

Right spend analysis, as it’s been developed to date, is a good starting point for companies trying to evaluate how they should invest resources in the U.S. Hispanic market. We just have to be careful to move the complex decision making around U.S. Hispanic market investments well beyond this starting point figure.

(an edited version of this article originally ran on MediaPost’s Engage Hispanic blog on 11/3/2011)

• Hispanics are early adopters of new technology, especially within the social media realm (we’re basically dealing with an “early adopter” consumer segment)
• Traditional Hispanic marketing is fairly predictable with clear steps to execution and predictable outcomes (you create a print ad and if you get it into the publisher before a certain date it will run it in a magazine with a certain circulation and will be viewed by x number of consumers)

So essentially, Hispanic social media marketing, even more than traditional social media marketing, is highly unpredictable. It is realm chock full of unknowns. An experienced social media marketer will tell you that they never know what will work before they’re actually in market, so it’s a game of trial and error. You have to be willing to fail before you succeed.

Unfortunately, the way most marketing programs (including social media programs) are planned, developed, launched, measured and optimized is based on a linear model that depends on the accuracy of numerous assumptions and emphasizes the planning artifacts (usually in the form of documents like “strategic plans”, creative briefs, and media plans). It is “waterfall” sequential process (as its described in the software development world):

By contrast, over the last few years, a new, more flexible approach to marketing, based on the tenets of Agile methodology (again, an approach pioneered in software development), has been evangelized by many organizations that stresses speed to market, rapid iteration, and embraces the notion that marketers don’t know what works before they’re actually in market. Because of the unpredictable nature of the Hispanic consumer and their use of digital media, and the “wild west” nature of social media marketing, an agile approach is critical to success.

So what does this approach look like? It helps to contrast it to the way most of us have gone about developing marketing programs (and ironically, the waterfall method I proposed in last year’s Hispanic Social Media Guide)

So how do you get started with this new agile approach to Hispanic social media? Follow these simple steps:

#1 Assemble a small team and assign roles – Focus on “doers.” If you planning on producing a lot of Spanish content, get a Spanish copywriter on board. If you will be building an app, get a developer on the team. Give everyone clear roles and make sure you have all the resources to execute on your program.

#2 Decide on the duration of the first project (or “sprint”) – Emphasize short cycles, ideally 2-4 weeks. Anything longer than that means you’re overplanning or don’t have the resources you need to build what you want.

#3 Set goals for the first project / sprint – Flesh out your goals from a user perspective in the form of “stories.” E.g. “I want Hispanic moms to visit the Facebook page, ‘fan’ us, and download a printable recipe.”

#4 Set regular project/sprint meetings – Set short (10-30 min) meeting daily or a couple times a week to discuss the stories, review tasks and estimate time requirements.

#5 Project / sprint retrospective – After you’re in market, evaluate and discuss with the team what went well and what went didn’t.

#6 Start project/sprint planning again (for the next project/sprint) – Go back to step #3 and start again.

This approach to Hispanic social media isn’t about discarding all planning, but instead about condensing into short cycles, where documentation and assumptions are replaced with living programs and actual results (and data).

While I wouldn’t suggest this agile approach for all Hispanic marketing programs, particularly those with hard deadlines and highly defined deliverables (like event marketing, direct mail, or print/OOH advertising), it’s perfectly suited to social media marketing. Social media provides near instant feedback – you’ll know within a few days or weeks whether a program is working. Social media is also relatively inexpensive (particularly of the hard costs of media necessary with most traditional advertising), allowing for easy testing and learning.

One final note: agile Hispanic social media marketing is perfect for companies that are just getting started in the Hispanic market. Success in the U.S. Hispanic mark often requires investments and changes in other aspects of a company’s operation – such as customer service, human resources, and product / service development. Trying to predict them all upfront would be difficult if not impossible

If you haven’t read it, give it a once over (it’s re-posted at the end of this blog)

As we near the end of 2011 (isn’t that crazy?), it seems like as good a time as any to reflect on whether any of my predictions panned out.

I could make a pretty strong case that predictions #1-#4 were on point. Not seeing much movement on prediction #5 though.

What do you think?

—————————————–

I made the bold prediction almost a year ago today that Hispanic marketing was in for big changes in 2011. I have to admit I think I will be proven wrong.

I think 2011 will result in even more changes than I boldly forecast last year. In fact, I think by the time 2012 rolls around, we’re barely going to recognize the Hispanic marketing space that has seen tremendous growth (more people, more media companies, and more agencies) but changed very little since 2000. Here are my revised, emboldened predictions for Hispanic marketing in 2011:

Prediction #1 – The death of the Hispanic advertising agency
2010 was most definitely the year of the full-on assault on Hispanic advertising agencies (starting with the Home Depot controversy in April, Crispin Porter’s absorption of Burger King Hispanic in August, and the ANA Multicultural Conference controversy in September). 2011 will no doubt see a continued push by general market agencies into the Hispanic market. Not only will they continue this push by staffing up on Hispanic advertising talent, but also through acquisitions (I have firsthand knowledge of at least a few such acquisitions plans from some big ad agency players). Moreover, marketers, particularly those in “minority-majority” markets such as Los Angeles, will begin to follow El Pollo Loco’s lead and consolidate their Hispanic and General Market advertising accounts. Add in the fact that Hispanic ad agencies have been painfully slow in building digital capabilities (they’ve made a valiant “too little, too late” effort during the last 12-18 months), and the writing is on the wall – the start of a slow death for the Hispanic advertising agency model as we now know it.

Prediction #2 – Hispanic PR officially becomes Hispanic Social Media
2010 was also the year that Hispanic PR agencies took the plunge and fully embraced social media as the future of their industry. The success of the inaugural Hispanic PR & Social Media Conference and the LATISM Latino2 tour highlighted the coming of age of Hispanic social media. Hispanic bloggers and social media influencers are establishing themselves as the key centers of influence in the Hispanic community. This was coupled with the continued decline in Spanish print media (magazines and newspapers), which has started to feel the decline in readership resulting from consumer’s shift online and the recession. Looking ahead at 2011, I see a continued decline in Hispanic print coupled with an equally sharp rise in niche and “long-tail” Hispanic digital publishers (whether they are bloggers, Facebook influencers, or small Websites) – with what were formerly “Hispanic PR” agencies and professionals positioning themselves as the expert guides of this growing and increasingly prominent Hispanic social media space.

Prediction #3 – Digital leap-frogs “Hispanic”
During the boom years of Hispanic digital (2005-2008), the Hispanic digital media market looked a lot like the Hispanic traditional media landscape – a handful of prominent Spanish-language portals / mega-publishers that owned the market (e.g. Batanga.com, Univision.com, Terra.com, and Starmedia.com), surrounded by a lots of smaller upstart ad networks (e.g. Gorilla Nation, HispanoClick, Consorte Media) and a handful of general market publisher extensions into the Hispanic market (e.g. ESPNDeportes.com, CNNEspanol.com, etc.) that got the scraps. During the last 12-18 months, the Hispanic digital media market has fragmented, led by technology such as behavioral targeting, demand side platforms (DSPs) and ad networks with immense scale and reach. While the Univision.com’s and Terra.com’s of the Hispanic digital media market will not be going away anytime soon, their days as “market makers” are numbered. Looking ahead, as Hispanic digital media consumption becomes more social (Facebook) and personal (mobile), and mirrored Spanish Websites /microsites become a relic of the past (recent AOL research and Best Buy’s well chronicled experience shows that Hispanic consumers have come to view Spanish sites as inherently inferior to “main” English language sites), the Hispanic digital marketing space will be unlike anything veteran Hispanic marketers have grown accustomed to seeing in their analog Hispanic world.

Prediction #4 – The multicultural mainstream becomes a reality
Multicultural consumers already make up 35% of the entire U.S. population. Guess what will happen to that percentage when the 2010 Census numbers come out this spring? Welcome to the new “multicultural mainstream” – a new America where close to 40% of the overall population is multicultural (Hispanic, Black, Asian and multi-racial). DMA’s like Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Atlanta, and Washington, DC are already “minority majority” markets (Hispanics, Blacks and Asians combined make up more than 50% of the total population) – expect cities like New York and Chicago to join the list in 2011. This will only put more pressure on advertisers, particularly regional ones, to re-assess how they allocate marketing resources to ethnic groups like Hispanics. My theory is more of the “El Pollo Loco” phenomenon from Prediction #1 – as advertisers consolidate their Hispanic (and other multicultural marketing efforts) with their general market ad agencies.

Prediction #5 – The birth of the Hispanic Youth Market
The last few years have seen a steady increase in dialogue, events and attention among marketers about the Hispanic youth market (Hispanics under the age of 24). The statistics are already mind-boggling:
• In 13 years, 50% of Americans under 18 will be minorities (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
• 80% are US-born (Source: University of California, San Francisco)

I predict that the 2010 Census figures regarding Hispanic Youth will be the most unexpected… and growing. Yet the Hispanic youth market represents a conundrum for Hispanic marketers – a growing market that increasingly identifies and shows pride in its Hispanic heritage but consumes very little Spanish-language media and sees the world through color-blind lenses. This will be the toughest nut to crack for marketers and advertising professionals of all stripes – general market, Hispanic, digital, direct response, social media and everything in between. Yet I see Hispanic youth as the biggest marketing opportunity to come out of 2011.

Think of 2011 as the year of creative destruction in Hispanic marketing – some things will die, a lot will change, and brand new opportunities will sprout from the ashes.

Let me clear the air.

First, I was not criticizing the “Digital Divas” event, belittling the panelists, or in any way questioning the quality of the event.

Second, I was not writing an article summarizing the particulars of the event, as a reporter in a newspaper would, nor leading anyone into thinking that I attended the event. I am not a journalist nor have I ever attempted to present myself as one. I simply provide my opinions and musing on the world of multicultural marketing.

The post was an honest expression of my reaction after reading about the well publicized event (which was sponsored by HPRA-NY, and hosted by Porter Novelli – an immaterial fact I omitted from my original post)

The purpose of my post, like everything I write about, is exactly to foster a healthy debate about the issues affecting multicultural marketing and communications. While I did use the word “traditional” in a vague and confusing manner, what I was trying to express is that the panelists represented media companies in the traditional sense – run by editors and hierarchical in their structure. I assumed, wrongly, that a panel entitled “digital divas” would be centered around individual, decentralized Latina social media influencers. The fact that all were involved in online publishing instead of offline publishing was not my point, it was that they were all representing conventional “top-down” publishers.

I did not pass judgment on these “top-down” publishers as somehow irrelevant or inferior (I don’t believe that). I just expressed that my perspective is such that if asked, I would define “digital divas” as independent, decentralized social media influencers and bloggers. That my perspective is different, and that I suspect I might not be alone.

I was hoping to spur a debate about these two models of media – because I know Hispanic PR professionals have some interesting and sometimes conflicting opinions about whether the “groundswell” cadre of Hispanic bloggers and social media influencers are ready to take a seat at the table with the conventional Hispanic publishers and media players.

Now everyone, step away from the ledge and let’s debate…

The story was about an event organized by Porter Novelli and attended by numerous top Hispanic PR firms interviewing “Digital Divas.” The reason the story caught my attention was that I assumed it was an event featuring Latina social media influencers – such as top Mami bloggers, Latina foodie writers, etc.

Nope – it was a panel featuring Editors from traditional Hispanic publishers.

Now there is nothing wrong with this, but when I saw the phrase “Digital Divas,” I immediately assumed that the participants would be social media influencers – the groundswell-type digital influencers.

What struck me about the dissonance between my expectation and reality was that it was emblematic of a distinct “divide” that exists between the old and new school in Hispanic marketing – in this case, Hispanic PR. The old school view “Digital Divas” as Editors of traditional media publishers. I, and I would imagine others who are more digital in our orientation, would consider “Digital Divas” to be Latina bloggers, Facebook celebrities and other social media influencers working way outside the world of top New York media publishers.

I think this is the biggest digital divide affecting Hispanics in America.

I made the bold prediction almost a year ago today that Hispanic marketing was in for big changes in 2011. I have to admit I think I will be proven wrong.

I think 2011 will result in even more changes than I boldly forecast last year. In fact, I think by the time 2012 rolls around, we’re barely going to recognize the Hispanic marketing space that has seen tremendous growth (more people, more media companies, and more agencies) but changed very little since 2000. Here are my revised, emboldened predictions for Hispanic marketing in 2011:

Prediction #1 – The death of the Hispanic advertising agency
2010 was most definitely the year of the full-on assault on Hispanic advertising agencies (starting with the Home Depot controversy in April, Crispin Porter’s absorption of Burger King Hispanic in August, and the ANA Multicultural Conference controversy in September). 2011 will no doubt see a continued push by general market agencies into the Hispanic market. Not only will they continue this push by staffing up on Hispanic advertising talent, but also through acquisitions (I have firsthand knowledge of at least a few such acquisitions plans from some big ad agency players). Moreover, marketers, particularly those in “minority-majority” markets such as Los Angeles, will begin to follow El Pollo Loco’s lead and consolidate their Hispanic and General Market advertising accounts. Add in the fact that Hispanic ad agencies have been painfully slow in building digital capabilities (they’ve made a valiant “too little, too late” effort during the last 12-18 months), and the writing is on the wall – the start of a slow death for the Hispanic advertising agency model as we now know it.

Prediction #2 – Hispanic PR officially becomes Hispanic Social Media
2010 was also the year that Hispanic PR agencies took the plunge and fully embraced social media as the future of their industry. The success of the inaugural Hispanic PR & Social Media Conference and the LATISM Latino2 tour highlighted the coming of age of Hispanic social media. Hispanic bloggers and social media influencers are establishing themselves as the key centers of influence in the Hispanic community. This was coupled with the continued decline in Spanish print media (magazines and newspapers), which has started to feel the decline in readership resulting from consumer’s shift online and the recession. Looking ahead at 2011, I see a continued decline in Hispanic print coupled with an equally sharp rise in niche and “long-tail” Hispanic digital publishers (whether they are bloggers, Facebook influencers, or small Websites) – with what were formerly “Hispanic PR” agencies and professionals positioning themselves as the expert guides of this growing and increasingly prominent Hispanic social media space.

Prediction #3 – Digital leap-frogs “Hispanic”
During the boom years of Hispanic digital (2005-2008), the Hispanic digital media market looked a lot like the Hispanic traditional media landscape – a handful of prominent Spanish-language portals / mega-publishers that owned the market (e.g. Batanga.com, Univision.com, Terra.com, and Starmedia.com), surrounded by a lots of smaller upstart ad networks (e.g. Gorilla Nation, HispanoClick, Consorte Media) and a handful of general market publisher extensions into the Hispanic market (e.g. ESPNDeportes.com, CNNEspanol.com, etc.) that got the scraps. During the last 12-18 months, the Hispanic digital media market has fragmented, led by technology such as behavioral targeting, demand side platforms (DSPs) and ad networks with immense scale and reach. While the Univision.com’s and Terra.com’s of the Hispanic digital media market will not be going away anytime soon, their days as “market makers” are numbered. Looking ahead, as Hispanic digital media consumption becomes more social (Facebook) and personal (mobile), and mirrored Spanish Websites /microsites become a relic of the past (recent AOL research and Best Buy’s well chronicled experience shows that Hispanic consumers have come to view Spanish sites as inherently inferior to “main” English language sites), the Hispanic digital marketing space will be unlike anything veteran Hispanic marketers have grown accustomed to seeing in their analog Hispanic world.

Prediction #4 – The multicultural mainstream becomes a reality
Multicultural consumers already make up 35% of the entire U.S. population. Guess what will happen to that percentage when the 2010 Census numbers come out this spring? Welcome to the new “multicultural mainstream” – a new America where close to 40% of the overall population is multicultural (Hispanic, Black, Asian and multi-racial). DMA’s like Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Atlanta, and Washington, DC are already “minority majority” markets (Hispanics, Blacks and Asians combined make up more than 50% of the total population) – expect cities like New York and Chicago to join the list in 2011. This will only put more pressure on advertisers, particularly regional ones, to re-assess how they allocate marketing resources to ethnic groups like Hispanics. My theory is more of the “El Pollo Loco” phenomenon from Prediction #1 – as advertisers consolidate their Hispanic (and other multicultural marketing efforts) with their general market ad agencies.

Prediction #5 – The birth of the Hispanic Youth Market
The last few years have seen a steady increase in dialogue, events and attention among marketers about the Hispanic youth market (Hispanics under the age of 24). The statistics are already mind-boggling:
• In 13 years, 50% of Americans under 18 will be minorities (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
• 80% are US-born (Source: University of California, San Francisco)

I predict that the 2010 Census figures regarding Hispanic Youth will be the most unexpected… and growing. Yet the Hispanic youth market represents a conundrum for Hispanic marketers – a growing market that increasingly identifies and shows pride in its Hispanic heritage but consumes very little Spanish-language media and sees the world through color-blind lenses. This will be the toughest nut to crack for marketers and advertising professionals of all stripes – general market, Hispanic, digital, direct response, social media and everything in between. Yet I see Hispanic youth as the biggest marketing opportunity to come out of 2011.

Think of 2011 as the year of creative destruction in Hispanic marketing – some things will die, a lot will change, and brand new opportunities will sprout from the ashes.

The event was billed as the first stop in a multi-city tour of California by LATISM. LATISM bills itself as “the largest organization of Social Media profesionals of Hispanic origin. Our members are bloggers, twitters, social network group leaders, e-commerce owners, marketers and more. ”

If you’re like me, you’ve probably heard of LATISM, and maybe the Latino2 tour, but were not really sure what the group is about?

While I have generally been supportive of LATISM, and agreed to participate in the Latino2 LA event as a panelist, I truly did not know what to expect. In fact, whenever people ask me about LATISM, I have a hard time giving them a succinct description of the group (or “movement” if you prefer).

So I attended the entire conference and tried to take it in, observe the attendees, and “listen in” on conversations as much as possible to try to size-up LATISM.

First, a couple of observations about the event:

– There was a decent sized crowd in attendance (I “ball parked” it at around 150-170 people)

– A lot of the attendees were bloggers and social media power users (i.e. people with 1,000+ Twitter followers, etc.)

– 95% of the attendees were Hispanic.

– More interestingly, I would say the majority of the Hispanic attendees were fully bilingual, probably best described as “partially-acculturated”

– The major and most visible corporate sponsors were large technology companies (e.g. HP)

– Local PR firms had a strong presence at the event

Listening to the conversations and discussions both during the formal program and during networking breaks, I noticed a couple of interesting things:

1. There were countless anecdotes about attendee older family members recently jumping into social media (e.g. stories about Spanish-dominant “abuelitas” and older parents recently signing up for Facebook and “friending” them)

2. More specifically, a lot of these stories had an interesting twist – that using Facebook was the impetus for these older Hispanics to begin to use the Internet in general.

3. A lot of the bloggers in attendance started blogging because they felt a dissatisfaction with mainstream media and content that was irrelevant to them. Simply put, they didn’t identify with most Spanish-language media (“it’s for recent immigrants”) and feel that general market media has failed to connect with them culturally.

In summary, the event was best described as a early-stage version of a Hispanic “BlogWorld.” It’s also clear that there is a large and growing Hispanic social media world (bloggers, twitter users, amateur content producers, etc.), and that a lot of growth is coming from older, less acculturated Hispanics.

It’s also clear that a lot of the most vocal members of the LATISM community are looking to fill gaps they see between the traditional media and social media spectrum.

Sounds a lot like the early days of Spanish TV…

If you’re like me, you’ve probably seen innumerable reports and studies stating that Hispanics are more social.

Most of the data backing up this catchy headline focuses on social media usage. Hispanics are active users of social media platforms, particularly social networks like Facebook, micromedia such as Twitter, and the reading and writing of blogs. Research firms like Forrester have gone further and looked at what type of social media users Hispanics are by understanding where they fit into their well-respected social technographic ladder (“Inactives” vs “Creators”, etc.). Again, the data paints a positive picture that Hispanics over-index the general market in terms of their engagement level. In plain English – there are a lot of Hispanic social media users and they are more active.

All of this quantitative data is sound and the conclusion is pretty straightforward – Hispanics use social media, as much or more than their general market counterparts. That’s great and all, but it doesn’t really help a marketer figure out how to use social media to market to Hispanics.

Why not? Isn’t the data enough to support most brands and companies investing in Hispanic social media?

Unfortunately, the tools aren’t there. Hispanic marketers only have a two-dimensional prism to understand a three-dimensional world. Put another way, all the great data I referenced earlier just confirms that Hispanics are consuming/producing social media, but that isn’t enough information to understand how to engage them in this space Why? Because social media activity cannot be simply filtered as Hispanic unless Hispanics behave differently than non-Hispanics in this environment.

The problem lies in the simple premise at the heart of the multi-billion dollar Hispanic marketing industry – that most Hispanics are culturally and linguistically different from the “general market” and consume different media (i.e. Hispanic media, 90 percent of which is in Spanish). This premise is the reason why two symbiotic sectors exist:
• Hispanic advertising and PR agencies that create culturally and linguistically relevant communications for Hispanic consumers
• Hispanic media that provides Hispanic consumers with linguistically and/or culturally unique content they demand (where Hispanic ad agencies can buy media on and PR firms can “earn” coverage in)

When we talk about reaching Hispanics in social media the aforementioned premise no longer holds true. Specifically, the second part of the premise breaks down – Hispanics are not consuming different media – they are on the same Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and other large scale “connected” platforms as everyone else. That is what makes social media so powerful – you can connect 500 million people on the same network, even though they may be in 100 different countries speaking 150 different languages.

The concept of segmenting one ethnic group – either based on language, culture or media consumption – becomes fundamentally more complex when everyone is on the same site, network or platform. You can’t simply cling to differences in the language of media consumption. You can’t look to Facebook “en Español” (ask MySpace how that worked out for them) when the content is no longer asymmetrical – you don’t have a single, centralized content producer (think Univision or SBS) being consumed by large scale masses. The “content-creation-to-content-consumption” continuum is peer-to-peer (with companies/brands mixed in at the same level of peers), so it’s very difficult to depend on only contextual relevance.

What we’re missing is qualitative data about if, and how, Hispanics use social media differently. Do they consume, comment on, or produce social content that is different than the general market?

Language plays a part, but when you are connecting 100s of millions of people on the same platform, there is a lot of cross-language media consumption taking place. More simply, do Hispanics exhibit different behavior on social media? Part of this qualitative question is whether they demand – and therefore consume – different content. But that’s only part of the behavioral equation.

Do they produce different content (e.g. talk about different things)? Do they comment differently (i.e. are they more likely to comment positively than the general market)? Do they exhibit different attitudes towards brands and companies in social media? Do some of the generally excepted models of social media behavior apply “apples-to-apples” to U.S. Hispanic consumers (i.e. does the Hispanic social technographic ladder have different rungs)?

I have anecdotal evidence from client campaigns that they do behave differently, but our industry needs more robust qualitative research and behavioral models to provide the 78 percent of hesitant marketers (according to an Orci report) with the intelligence they need to smartly “go to market” with Hispanics in social media.

Two weeks ago I had the opportunity to attend the Forrester Marketing Forum. There was one particular discussion, run by Forrester Analyst Sean Corcoran, that got me thinking a lot about the future of Hispanic marketing.

Corcoran’s session, entitled “The Role of Agencies in the Adaptive Era” revolved around the future of agency relationships, particularly digital agencies, in a world where people consume multiple media, trust one another more than they do marketers, social media helps them connect, and consumer determine what is relevant. The session, which referred to Forrester’s March 2010 “The Future of Agency Relationship,” actually went further into an evaluation of the relevancy of today’s “Big 5” agency model of traditional advertising agencies, direct marketing agencies, media planning agencies, interactive agencies and communications/PR agencies. The takeaway: none of these 5 dominant agency types are appropriate for this new era that requires agencies to artfully combine branding, communications, channel planning & execution, creative, technology and analytics. Instead, a new holistic agency model, based on holistic 360 consumer strategies, instead of the old “push” strategies of the 20th century must ensue.

Looking at this situation and based on Forrester’s insights I infer that two trends will ensue. With so many choices (as agencies continue to compete with each other), larger marketers will move away from traditional “Agency of Record” relationships to working with multiple agencies, many of whom will have stand-out capabilities either in branding, communications, channel planning, creative, technology or analytics. These agencies will be given opportunities to work across disciplines, and bring fresh thinking to the old big 5 mindsets. Mid-to-smaller sized marketers will continue to consolidate their work with new “agencies of record” that will “re-bundle” media, branding, creative, technology, analytics and PR to be relevant in this adapative era. New specialties will be organized around industry and vertical expertise, as opposed to capabilities. The big question for big 5 agencies types will be whether to “double-down” and focus on a specialist role or re-bundle to pursue lead agency roles?

What does all this mean for Hispanic marketing agencies, who are also organized around the same big 5 model? Are there other dynamics at work, particularly vis-à-vis the relationship between traditional agencies and Hispanic agencies?

Needless to say, Hispanic agencies will not be immune from the effects of this dramatic realignment of the agency model and industry. However, I feel the end results and decisions facing Hispanic shops will be different. At the top the marketer food chain, larger marketers will continue the recent trend we saw with Home Depot’s recent decision to move their Hispanic duties from a specialist to their general market agency. These large marketers, as they move away from AOR commitments in the general market, will likely give non-Hispanic agencies opportunities to develop Hispanic programs, across all of the 5 disciplines. It won’t be strange to see general market interactive agencies executing Hispanic programs!

Looking at mid-to-smaller marketers, the demand for “re-bundling” will also likely include multicultural market capabilities. In a world where marketing is more pull oriented, it’s difficult to imagine marketers separating multicultural and general market programs.

The common thread in both of these segments of the market will be that Hispanic agencies will need to expand beyond Hispanic capabilities to include other audiences, including the general market, to be relevant. While that decision won’t be optional, they will also have to decide whether they going to be specialists or lead agencies, in a new “rebundled” multicultural agency world.