(a condensed version of this blog was run on MediaPost’s EngageHispanic on 1/7/10 )

Most lists that come out this time of year take a stab at prognosticating what will happen in various industries during the next 12 months. I’m sure you thought that the title of this article was a typo – why would anyone be writing about trends in Hispanic marketing 12-24 months out?

Well, frankly, while I no doubt realize that 2010 will bring numerous evolutionary changes to the Hispanic advertising and media world, I feel that 2011 will result in far more disruptive and revolutionary change. Why?

First, Hispanic marketing trends usually follow trends in the general market. While these changes historically lag by 3-5 years, media and marketing technology has shortened that gap to 1-3 years, so that the transformational changes that have affected mainstream advertising and media will bear their full brunt on our industry by 2011. In addition, by the end of 2010, U.S. Hispanic Internet penetration is on pace to reach almost 70%, once and for all ending the debate over whether the Internet is a Hispanic mass marketing medium. Finally, the 2010 Census results will be out in early 2011, and will no doubt bring increased attention to the Hispanic market because the numbers will be big. This attention will not all be good, as I addressed in a blog a few months back, because in addition to more advertiser activity, it will translate into more competition from general market agencies attempting to service the market.

Before I jump into my list, it’s important to note and take into consideration some fundamental differences that exist between the Hispanic and mainstream marketing industries:
1. The continued pre-eminence and market power of the Spanish language broadcast duopoly of Univision and Telemundo, that control a vast majority of the almost 63% of Hispanic media spending that goes towards TV
2. The continued, albeit potentially slowing, trend of Latin American immigrants (mostly from Mexico and Central America) moving into the U.S.
3. The existence of roughly 80 specialist Hispanic ad agencies that are key agents to any change that occurs in this industry (among which there are only a handful of interactive agencies, the remainder of which have been slow to adopt digital, hampered partially by the fact that media-only shops like Tapestry and MV42 purchase most of the Hispanic digital media)

Trends

Erosion of Spanish TV’s Prominence – Although Spanish-language TV has managed to avoid the fate of their general market counterparts, trends such as online video (note the popularity of novelas on YouTube), the trend towards “on-demand” and DVR time-adjusted consumption will eventually impact Spanish TV. More importantly, the value of the big two’s content will begin to be “crowded out” by competition from Cable options, mobile and Internet video options, and cheaper access to home country content on all three of the aforementioned platforms.

Polarization of the Hispanic Acculturation Model – Most Hispanic marketing strategies are built on the foundation of the familiar 3-part Hispanic acculturation model (Unacculturated, Partially Acculturated, Acculturated). While this model will continue to be valid, it will become increasingly polarized as the difference between the 3 segments increases, particularly in relation to demographics and media preference. The coming “tsunami” of U.S.-born young Hispanics (in 10 years 62% of all teens will be Hispanic) will only exacerbate the differences that will exist between the various segments.

Shift in Emphasis from Traditional to Digital Channels – Ultimately clients make the decision as to where budgets will be spent, and their increasing preference to go digital in the general market will also carry-over to their Hispanic advertising efforts. I’m already starting to see Hispanic digital reviews, especially as clients focus on targeting specific Hispanic segments, trading reach for deeper engagement. Hispanic Direct Response activity will also migrate to the Web, particularly as Hispanic digital performance channels eat away at traditional options (DRTV, Direct Mail, etc.)

Mobile Marketing – Although mobile marketing’s arrival has been prematurely announced for the last 5 years, its undeniable growth in 2010 will finally reveal the full potential for using mobile to reach Hispanics in 2011. In fact, mobile will likely start to replace local print media consumption (newspaper readership), and opportunities with couponing, QR codes, and apps will make Hispanic mobile marketing the fastest growing segment in Hispanic media by the end of 2011.

The “Second Offensive” of the General Market Agencies – As mentioned above, the 2010 Census results will help to drive a new wave of interest in Hispanic advertising, both among marketers and general market ad ad agencies looking to continue to grow. Just like the lines between traditional and digital agencies were beginning to blur in 2009, by 2011, the lines between general market and multicultural marketing will become hazy, much to the dismay of specialist Hispanic shops.

Social Media Takes Center Stage – to borrow a phrase from AdWeek, social media will “be like air,” or everywhere and a part of all things advertising. This will be the case in Hispanic advertising, as the over-indexing of Hispanics on social media should provide the “writing on the wall.” However, like in the general market, clients will start to take social media programs “in-house,” especially those focused on creating and managing communities, including Hispanic communities.

Other Hispanic Media Will Experience Differing Fates – While Hispanic TV and print (newspapers and magazines) will suffer as a result of trends towards digital, Radio and OOH have an opportunity to emerge stronger than ever and evolve with changes in technology.

Arrival of New Media Platforms – Once gaming companies (gaming networks, online games, game developers, etc.) adopt more sophisticated demographic tracking capabilities, they will introduce a promising new media channel to reach Hispanic gamers of all ages and types. GPS enabled marketing, which should also come of age in mainstream marketing in 2010, and will be poised to open new doors to reaching Hispanics in 2011.

People will Talk about the “Good Old Days” of 2008 and before – As with the general market advertising industry, overall ad spending will take a long time to return to its pre-recession peaks. In the case of Hispanic media spending, those 2008 numbers won’t be seen again for a long time.

The Winners and Losers

As with any big disruptive changes, there are always winners and losers. I actually think there will be more winners than losers, assuming key player adapt to this big changes.

The Winners:
• New (and existing) mobile players that take on the Hispanic market
• General market traditional and digital agencies who will get more business opening multicultural or Hispanic practices
• Hispanic digital media companies
• Gaming companies that take on the Hispanic market
• Hispanic marketing professional who’ll be more in demand than ever before
• The Hispanic consumer that will begin to enjoy the same media and technology options of the general market

The Losers
• Hispanic ad agencies, as there will be fewer of them
• Spanish TV networks and their 60%+ market share duopoly

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